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Fool's Gold
2006-11-21 10:59
by Alex Belth

Ah, those RBI. They are the magic numbers that propelled Justin Morneau ahead of his more deserving teammates Johan Santana, and Joe Mauer--not to mention Derek Jeter--today as Minnie's first baseman wins the AL MVP. Congrats to Morneau. Otherwise, this is a bum call.

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Comments (121)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-11-21 11:16:46
1.   Jersey
Morneau was what, the 7th best candidate?? Boo.
2006-11-21 11:18:14
2.   Yankee Fan In Boston
jeter will have to win a triple crown before he gets the respect he deserves.

it is a shame.

2006-11-21 11:19:11
3.   chris in illinois
Santana still should have been ahead of Jeter, but for once Jeter's performance and rep were in alignment.
2006-11-21 11:19:30
4.   Saburo
I figure BBWAA membership must include a blood oath to the Church of RBI...

NOTHING ever changes.

2006-11-21 11:20:22
5.   jonnystrongleg
Jeter haters always claim he is wildly overrated - yet he was the clear choice for MVP twice (99 and 06) and got jobbed both times. This offseason just got longer and crappier.
2006-11-21 11:22:27
6.   Cliff Corcoran
Just more evidence that these awards are irrelevant.
2006-11-21 11:22:39
7.   pistolpete
What a disgrace. Morneau even had two teammates that were more deserving.

Now I know how Sox fans felt last year with Ortiz...

2006-11-21 11:23:36
8.   YankeeInMichigan
I wonder if the BP folks can calculate how many RBIs Morneau would have gotten with a replacement-level catcher in the lineup.
2006-11-21 11:26:55
9.   Cliff Corcoran
8 Best MVP reaction post yet.
2006-11-21 11:28:10
10.   The Mick 536
We was robbed.
2006-11-21 11:30:35
11.   Emy
Whatever... The more they screw these votes up, the less I care.

Yeah, it would have been cool for Jeets, but Yankee fans shouldn't be worrying about individual awards.

2006-11-21 11:31:27
12.   C2Coke
Irrelevant, maybe, but there's still those hopes and expectations.
10 We were all robbed.
2006-11-21 11:33:32
13.   chris in illinois
Ok,

I can agree that 1999 the stars were in alignment as well. Jeter probably should have been MVP that year-----I'll still take Santana in '06 (with Jeter 2nd).

2006-11-21 11:34:14
14.   chris in illinois
Morneau is a nice player, but MVP?? Clearly a joke.
2006-11-21 11:39:11
15.   SF Yanks
6 But don't these awards just add to the resume when considering being put into the hall of fame? I know Jeter is a shoe-in, but it still looks nice on the resume.
2006-11-21 11:39:49
16.   jakewoods
What a sham.
2006-11-21 11:41:38
17.   Yankee Fan In Boston
you know... now that i think about it... jeter has had his fair share of trophies...

scarlett johannson, jessica alba, adriana lima, that miss universe there...

he'll be okay.

2006-11-21 11:44:53
18.   rsmith51
They messed up the Cy Young last year, should have gone to Santana. Maybe this was a makeup to Minnesota. If they really wanted to make it up they should have voted for Santana.
2006-11-21 11:48:50
19.   rabid stan
Justin Morneau - 157 games - 34 HR
.321/.375/.559 - .934 OPS
.315 EqA, 8.9 WARP 3
3rd best MVP candidate on his own team

Paul Konerko - 152 games - 35 HR
.313/.381/.551 - .932 OPS
.313 EqA, 8.0 WARP 3
3rd best MVP candidate on his own team

The only difference, Morneau played slightly better defense.

Ladies and Gentlemen, your AL MVP: basically Paul Konerko.

2006-11-21 11:50:40
20.   jonnystrongleg
As bad as these votes are, being an MVP winner enhances your place in history. There is too much precedence out there for crediting players for winning MVP awards to expect that to change significantly even though we've identified the numerous gaffes and flaws. It just sux that the voters are mostly incompetent.
2006-11-21 11:52:35
21.   Chyll Will
Ahh, fergedit. Let's just go in next year and kickass, then take the trophy and shove it up their collective
2006-11-21 11:56:15
22.   Shaun P
Reading the press release shows just how far MLB still has to go before it gets it. Morneau did not have one of the best offensive seasons in Twins history. His VORP of 52 not only trails Mauer's own 66.9, but Chuck Knoblauch's 53.4 in 1997, 99.3 in 1996, and 72.3 in 1995; Kirby's 56.2 in 1992, 59 in 1989, 75.1 in 1988, 55.1 in 1987, and 65.4 in 1986; Kent Hrbek's 53 in 1984; Carew's 53.7 in 1978, 92.4 in 1977, 53.1 in 1976, 75 in 1975, 76.4 in 1974, and 67.7 in 1973; Lyman Bostock's (Lyman Bostock!) 56.8 in 1977; Harmon Killebrew's 55.8 in 1970, 75.2 in 1969, 61.3 in 1967, 55.3 in 1966, and 59.6 in 1961; Bob Allison's 58.7 in 1964; and Tony Oliva's 58 in 1964.

Oh, and it ties Roy Smalley's 52 in 1979.

So, by my count, Morneau tied for 25th best offensive season in Twins history. Literally speaking its "one of the best", but in reality, its far from it.

Congrats, BBWAA, you proved once again that some of your members do not deserve the privileges granted to them.

2006-11-21 11:57:53
23.   KJC
I can't stand Jeter (yes, I'm a Sox fan) but even I'll admit that he should've won. Maybe this bad MVP pick is karma for DJ's Gold Glove...
2006-11-21 12:01:44
24.   jonnystrongleg
23 That would be a high price. Fined 10 bucks for swiping a nickel.
2006-11-21 12:02:31
25.   rsmith51
I thought Joe Crede getting the Silver Slugger was karma for DJ's GG.
2006-11-21 12:04:41
26.   Andrew Fletcher
Here's something I want to know -- who voted Jeter sixth?!? Jim Caple? Bill Simmons? (I know neither one has a vote, just saying...)
2006-11-21 12:05:30
27.   Chyll Will
20 Who is Willie Hernandez?

Canseco won an MVP, Juan Gonzalez won an MVP. Terry Pendelton won an MVP, Andre Dawson won an MVP. George Bell, George Foster. Roger Maris won twice in a row. Bonds has seven. Enhance your place in history? No offense, but ask them if it helped.

2006-11-21 12:06:01
28.   pistolpete
17 Eh, Hollywood starlets come and go - MVP awards are in the record book forever!

Then again, this is coming from someone who will never get a chance to date anyone that Jeter has... ;-)

2006-11-21 12:11:30
29.   Chyll Will
28 Forget it, pete... it's Chinatown.
2006-11-21 12:13:28
30.   Chyll Will
28 Build your stable with the ones they don't know about; never scatter your pearls before swine >;)
2006-11-21 12:15:42
31.   YankeeInMichigan
I'm amazed by the uniformity of the voters. All 28 placed Morneau in the top 4. Jeter, Dye and Ortiz were also named on all 28 ballots and Frank Thomas made 26. But 5 voters snubbed Mauer entirely, 7 left off Santana and 9 dissed Hafner.

By the way, I was right on with my prediction that Guillen would come in 10th, appearing on 12 ballots.

2006-11-21 12:18:40
32.   jonnystrongleg
27 Are you saying it diminishes their place in history? Of course it helps. Your list makes no sense.

Willie Hernandez is BEST KNOWN for his 1984 MVP.

Of the players you mention that are not so great, their MVP award is the shining light on their careers.

Of the players you mention who were great once and then not so much, it's serves as the starting point for their cautionary tale "former MVP Jose Canseco snorts coke off hooker's cleavage" etc

Barry Bonds, 7 MVP awards affirms he dominated the game like no other player in the history of the award.

The MVP will not get a player in the Hall of Fame or out of jail by itself, but it is the most prestigious individual award you can win - obviously it enhances one's place in history to win one.

2006-11-21 12:23:50
33.   pistolpete
30 I have a few starlets in my 'stable', but the problem is when I watch the game with them, they always ask about the 'cute guy wearing #2', and then I'm finished.
2006-11-21 12:31:31
34.   Count Zero
Not to be a stick in the partisan mud but...

8 I wonder how many RBIs Morneau would've gotten if he had either Abreu, A-Rod, or Giambi hitting behind him for protection instead of Torii Hunter / Rondell White. ;-)

19 by your own logic:

Derek Jeter - 154 games - 14 HR
.343/.417/.483 - .900 OPS
.309 EqA, 9.8 WARP 1

An inferior MVP candidate to Morneau except for the WARP value.

I honestly thought Morneau had a pretty strong case all along, precisely because he posted those numbers hitting 5th with absolutely no protection. I could have made a good case for Jeter too. I thought it was a close call all along. (All the non-playoff guys -- Ortiz, Dye, Manny, etc. -- being automatically disqualified in the eyes of the voters.)

2006-11-21 12:33:13
35.   DarrenF
I have fun with the remarkable inconsistency.

I will gaze at the numbers for Morneau and Big Hurt for 10,000 years and I'll have no idea why they received so many MVP votes in 2006.

Big Hurt had 77 runs scored and a .270 batting average and he's a DH and he missed 25 games.

2006-11-21 12:35:38
36.   RIYank
34 Count, it was a close call. The problem is that it was a close call between (among?) players none of whom was Justin Morneau.

I could have taken a Mauer win (in fact I would have voted for him).

I guess KJC is right. Consecutive undeserved Gold Gloves are karmically costly.

2006-11-21 12:36:13
37.   JL25and3
5 I would hardly say that Jeter was the clear choice this year. He had a good case, but I don't think there really was a clear choice.

I know I'm in the minority here, but I'm not even so clear that he was the clear choice in 1999. Don't get me wrong, he was much better than Pudge, and it wasn't even close. But so were Pedro Martinez and Manny Ramirez and Nomar Garciaparra and Bernie Williams - all substantially better than Pudge. Put Jeter up against Rodriguez and it's no contest; put him up against those other guys and it's a lot closer.

2006-11-21 12:40:47
38.   Yankee Fan In Boston
most years i wouldn't have thought twice about jeter being overlooked in an MVP race. but this year was different.

he carried this team on his back. two potent bats down for 4 months. jeter produces. when cano was down for 6 weeks on top of the other mounting injuries, jeter was the guy who was getting things done. while others were slumping or swooning ("that third baseman"), jeter kept producing.

he was consistent. he led the team when everyone expected a collapse. remember when cano, sheffield and matsui were all out and the sox won 13 straight? if memory serves, the yankees only lost 2 games on them. jeter was swinging a hot bat.

he was by far the most valuable man on his team this year, and as far as i can see that isn't the case with morneau.

2006-11-21 12:41:53
39.   yankee23
According to Pete Abraham, it was Joe Cowley who voted Jetes 6th:

http://tinyurl.com/yxdgwa

2006-11-21 12:42:41
40.   yankee23
39 ...who's the White Sox beat writer from the Sun-Times.
2006-11-21 12:46:22
41.   DarrenF
I am also surprised that Posada couldn't get one li'l tenth-place vote.

Eh, who cares?

Lots of Yankees represented in the voting: Jeter, Rodriguez, Giambi, Cano, Rivera, Damon, Wang.

2006-11-21 12:52:21
42.   YankeeInMichigan
35 Yeah, I have a problem with the Thomas turnout too. There are 3 DHs (Hafner, Ortiz, Thome) that had far better seasons. One could make the argument that Thomas was the one bright light in the Oakland offense, but I would still consider Zito and Haren to have been more valuable to the A's success. Also, by that argument, Guillen should have fared better than 10th. (Yeah, I know chicks -- and beat writers -- dig the long ball.)
2006-11-21 12:52:48
43.   rabid stan
34 That's nice.

But I used WARP 3. Jeter has a WARP 3 of 12.1 v. Morneau's 8.6. Want to eliminate those messy defensive considerations, and maybe keep our focus to this season? Fine. Jeter's 9.8 WARP 1 is still better than Morneau's 7.3.

And Morneau's season adjusted EqA was .300, his all-time adjusted EqA was the .315 cited in 19.

I like 34 HR and a .934 OPS from my first-baseman, but I'm not throwing a parade.

.900 from a shortstop is more valuable, even if he's nobody's idea of a power hitter, because it means he's gotten on base a ton. Jeter not only did this, but threw in great baserunning, too.

Finally, though I personally would have liked Jeter to win, I wouldn't have barked if the award went to Mauer or Santana. Morneau was clearly an inferior choice.

2006-11-21 12:54:47
44.   Chyll Will
37 That's the thing, though. If Jeter had lost to say, Joe Mauer or Johan, then we wouldn't be having this conversation. A tip of the hat and oh-well. This just screams foul ball, considering that there were more worthy candidates on his own team. Take Morneau out of the lineup and they still make a good run at it. Take Mauer out and they don't even make the playoffs. Take out Santana, with Liriano already out, and they're mashed potatoes.

The MVP award is a major misnomer, it should be the MPP (Most Productive Player); seeing as that value defies definition (or consistancy).

33 That's the trick, my brotha. You aint's supposed to luvdem...

2006-11-21 13:02:25
45.   jonnystrongleg
37 Leading the league in win shares, hitting .343 as a Gold Glove winning SS (undeserved I know - but I doubt the voters do), leading the injury plagued team to the best record in baseball, having insane numbers in run scoring situations, if this is not the clear MVP, I don't know what is.
2006-11-21 13:05:23
46.   jakewoods
Just heard Cowley try and defend his putting Jeter 6th.

It was embarrassing. Heres his big reason. You ready?

A Rod was more clutch.

I sh*t u not.

What a travesty.

He even had Mad dog defending Jeter which is damn near impossible.

2006-11-21 13:07:57
47.   jakewoods
34

Thats a good argument. I'm sure being in a good lineup helps. But also remember this.

What if Morneua played in NY? No telling if he could handle everything that goes into it. Maybe that avg becomes 270 and he disappears for weeks at a time.

Little easier playing in Minny than in front of 55,000 every night.

2006-11-21 13:09:06
48.   jonnystrongleg
37 And by 'clear' I do not mean 'unaninmous,' I just mean the player with the best argument/case/resume for the award.
2006-11-21 13:09:20
49.   rabid stan
46 I don't think anyone has ever said "A-Rod was more clutch" before, let alone in comparison to Jeter. Unreal.

Not that I think clutchiness should be a consideration, but I know it is, and I have never heard that before.

2006-11-21 13:10:24
50.   OldYanksFan
Weird Karma.
A player who wears #13, got 13 votes, and finished in 13th place.

Mauer gets LESS THEN 1/2 the votes of Morneau.

35 Ask 25 players on Oakland if they had had a league average DH, would they have been in the PS? FT's numbers weren't that great, but he made the different for his team. That does make you valuable.

Santana was great, but they do have a CY award only for pitchers. Win 31 games (like McLain), or 27 or maybe 25? I'd consider it. But not 19 wins for MVP over someone who contributed everyday, and made the difference, like Jeter.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-11-21 13:11:18
51.   Raf
39 The former Yankee lefty?
2006-11-21 13:11:49
52.   jonnystrongleg
46 Truly an unbelievable comment. Just clicking on "splits" in the Yahoo or ESPN stats would have proven this guy's assumption false. He obviously didn't look into his vote to seriously.
2006-11-21 13:12:43
53.   Raf
47 If you can play, you can play. Venue is irrelevant.
2006-11-21 13:12:48
54.   jakewoods
I cant believe Cowley said it. He basically admitted he didnt watch one Yankee game all year. Then he tried to argue that Boston was still contending in September.

What gets me is that Morneu wasnt even the best player on his team. Mauer is way more valuable.

Mauer had a 54-point edge in OBP over Morneau and won a Gold Glove as a catcher.

Morneau at 1b was only 12th in homers and 2nd in rbi's.

A disgrace.

2006-11-21 13:13:22
55.   pistolpete
Joe Cowley: failure as Yankees pitcher, failure as MVP voter.
2006-11-21 13:14:21
56.   ny2
46. I started laughing when I heard him say that ... of all things to use to defend himself for voting him 6th ... using a-rod's clutchness shouldn't be one of them
2006-11-21 13:15:08
57.   jakewoods
53

Veneu is irrelevant huh?

Ask Kenny Rogers if its different playing in NY. Also ask Eddie Whitson, Kevin Brown, Pavano, Knoblauch, etc.

Just like Im sure its not the same in Boston. Some markets are just much tougher and you have to mentally tougher to play there. Its not sure thing that stats or performance will translate.

2006-11-21 13:18:32
58.   Yankee Fan In Boston
53 i don't think that statement is entirely true. while where someone plays having an effect on them is often overblown or exaggerated, i think it may have an effect on certain people. pressure is pressure. some people thrive in it, others... not so much. i haven't seen morneau enough to know how he'd do in pressure situations or NY.
2006-11-21 13:18:35
59.   randym77
Jeet wuz robbed.

And Mike Celizic agrees:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15825167/

>> People who watch him every day – including those who've made the game their lives for 30 or 40 years – know that Jeter simply gets things done. He moves runners over, gets on base, steals and runs the bases as well as anyone, can lay down a sacrifice, hit the other way and, when he puts his mind to it, drive it out of the park. Hitting second, he still drove in 97 runs while scoring 118. By one measure – adding runs and RBIs and subtracting home runs (You can't get two points if you drive yourself in) – he actually produced more runs than anyone in the American League. <<

2006-11-21 13:20:06
60.   jonnystrongleg
49 Why shouldn't "clutchiness" be a consideration? Jeter's insane production with RISP helped the Yanks win a ton of games and is one of the feathers in his cap for his 2006 success.

"Clutch ability" may not be a real or repeatable thing (color me on the fence, but mostly in the "doesn't exist camp" on it) but the player should be rewarded/punished for what they actually do in those situations. Arod's year was shittier than it looked because he was bad in close and late situations. Jeter's was better than it looked because he was great.

It may be useless as a predictive stat, but it's certainly a valid stat when measuring actual value.

2006-11-21 13:21:31
61.   Shaun P
55 Pete Abraham reports in his blog that its a different Joe Cowley.

46 This Cowley guy knows how to get a rise out of Yankee fans, for sure. Too bad he wouldn't know a baseball game if he was paid to watch one.

When Yankee fans are decrying the MVP vote not because Jeter lost but because Morneau wasn't even the MVP of his own team (whatever Johan Santana says), you know something is horribly wrong with the results of the MVP voting.

2006-11-21 13:23:17
62.   randym77
46 Unbelievable. If I were the paranoid type, I'd wonder if A-Rod paid him to say that or something.
2006-11-21 13:23:24
63.   Raf
57 Rogers first year was in line with his career. His second wasn't. Whitson & Pavano sucked before they came to NY, Brown was just about done when he got here, Knobby had two good and two bad years here.
2006-11-21 13:28:24
64.   yankee23
If anyone has espn insider, then there are (what appear to be) a couple of decent articles supporting jetes:

http://tinyurl.com/y8p3md

http://tinyurl.com/y6asp2

2006-11-21 13:28:29
65.   Shaun P
"By one measure – adding runs and RBIs and subtracting home runs (You can't get two points if you drive yourself in) – he actually produced more runs than anyone in the American League."

I take my hat off to Hat Guy, Mike Celzic, who just created a horribly meaningless stat. Add the two most team-dependent counting stats together and then subtract home runs - that's a way to define value.

I can't wait 'til the boys at firejoemorgan.com get a hold of that one.

2006-11-21 13:29:17
66.   ChuckM
Not that it matters, but Joe Cowley the pitcher was right-handed, and had a schnozz that could block out the sun on most days...
2006-11-21 13:29:51
67.   Simone
I am still ticked off about Derek losing to Morneau. Cowley and his knucklehead colleagues who voted the same way just prove that a lot of these baseball writers don't understand the sport that they cover.

Hey Alex, did you see that Murray Chass had an article in today's NY Times supporting Marvin Miller's election to the Hall of Fame: http://tinyurl.com/ylj6eb. It probably won't happen, but it nice to see that Chass is speaking up on Miller's behalf.

2006-11-21 13:30:06
68.   JL25and3
I don't get real worked up over awards. MVPs are like Oscars; if they get it right, that's nice, but they usually don't. And "Most Valuable" is probably even more impossible to define than "Best Picture."

Bill James's writing about the Hall of Fame is generally not about who should be in, but about who does get in. I look at this the same way; here's how I see it.

9 times out of 10, it goes to someone who is a HR/RBI guy, and he should be the clear leader on his team in those categories. Right there, we practically eliminate the Yankees and Tigers, who had no one Big Gun. Mauer loses points as well.

He should be on a winning team, preferably an overachieving one, certainly not one that underachieves. Goodby, Papi.

It's better if he's not a pitcher or DH. And the voters really like a guy who suddenly burst into HR/RBI prominence - he's gotten more buzz over the course of the season. Frank Thomas hits like hell, dog bites man. Justin Morneau suddenly hits the big time - that catches their eye.

2006-11-21 13:30:11
69.   Shaun P
64 One of Keith Law's many great lines from his article (the second link):

"And while we're at it, how the heck did Thomas -- the third-best designated hitter in the American League -- end up fourth in the voting? It's just more evidence that the bulk of this year's voters don't understand what is actually valuable in baseball: Players who hit and play good defense up the middle are the most valuable position players in the game."

2006-11-21 13:32:05
70.   rabid stan
53 Morneau can play, but the best you can say about his season is that it was very good for a first baseman. It wasn't the kind of performance that should have gotten him the MVP.

Some revelant comparisons:

Albert Pujols (2005)
.330/.430/.609, 41 HR, 1.039 OPS

Alex Rodriguez (2005)
.321/.421/.610, 48 HR, 1.031 OPS

Those were your 2005 MVP's.

Now Morneau:
.321/.375/.559, 34 HR, .934 OPS

There's a difference between being "able to play", and all the understatement that phrase implies, and being the MVP.

At 1B, Morneau has a high bar to meet in the power production department, and he didn't meet it. It's different for Jeter at SS. He played far above of his position in every statistical measure. Hell, if he were a 1B, his .900 OPS would be good for third in the AL at that position.

(True, Carlos Guillen had a .919 OPS at short, but Jeter was hands down better in WARP1 and WARP3, had a higher VORP and 48 more hits.)

2006-11-21 13:34:46
71.   rabid stan
60 If you want to define clutchiness as RISP, fine. Just call it RISP. Otherwise, people may zone out, thinking you're talking about David Eckstein or something.
2006-11-21 13:36:28
72.   yankee23
We already covered the part where Morneau has 11 win shares to Jetes' 29, right?
2006-11-21 13:38:32
73.   Raf
70 My point has more to do with the perception that it is somehow more difficult to play in NY than in MIN. It isn't. A player will play in line with his career no matter where he plays.

Morneau doesn't deserve the AL MVP. As been pointed out, he wasn't even the MVP of his team. But, hey, it isn't the first time the BWAA screwed up, and unfortunately it won't be the last time

2006-11-21 13:40:09
74.   Orly Yarly NoWai
72 Nope. Good to know.

59 NEVER use HatGuy as support for your argument.