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The Waiting Game
2006-07-28 07:23
by Alex Belth
Note: The Bronx Banter blog has moved to bronxbanterblog.com.

According to Buster Olney:

The Yankees want Bobby Abreu, and the Phillies keep calling the Yankees and asking for top prospects; the Yankees' executives will not trade pitcher Philip Hughes. If the Phillies' priority is to dump salary, it appears Philadelphia will have to lower its demands in order to give itself a chance to move Abreu's contract -- and even then, it wouldn't be a sure thing. Abreu must approve any deal.

Even if the Yanks don't make a splashy move, it's hard to imagine that they won't make at least one small deal. So, what do you think is gunna happen?

Comments (75)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-07-28 07:48:48
1.   Dimelo
I just want the Yanks to get an above average pitcher, if at all possible, and plug him into the rotation in the 4th or 5th spot. DFA or trade Chacon and Ponson, bring up DePaula as the long man and call it a day.
2006-07-28 08:01:50
2.   JL25and3
1 The only problem is, what pitcher? Beane's price for Zito will be way too high for the Yankees; deadline pressure won't affect that because Beane will be just as happy to keep Zito. Who else is there - Livan Hernandez, Jon Lieber, Freddy Garcia? No thanks.

If the price isn't too high, I'd still love to see Abreu.

2006-07-28 08:05:12
3.   Sam DC
You want to come down here to DC and get yourself a Tony Armas Jr. That's what you want to do.
2006-07-28 08:06:45
4.   Shaun P
That sounds like a good plan to me, Dimelo!

For the life of me, though, I can't figure out what small deal for pitching the Yanks might make. Too many teams are in the race, or think they are (cough-Seattle-cough).

The other teams aren't going to trade young pitchers, so its only veterans. And outside of Byrd and Westbrook - and I don't know if either of them is really available - I'm not sure any of them is worth acquiring.

2006-07-28 08:06:52
5.   bp1
The big currency this trade season is not cash but prospects and "major league ready" talent. There's a scarcity of it, and nobody is willing to part with what they have. With so many teams still within a half dozen games of a playoff spot, there aren't many teams looking to dump salary.

I could be surprised, and it could be that Philly is just going to dump Abreu come late Monday, but I doubt it. I don't think much is going to happen for the Yankees. As Cash said last year - this is the team we've got. We have to find a way.

2006-07-28 08:08:15
6.   Shaun P
3 Unless his arm falls off between now and Monday, which is possible. ;)

That's what scares me about any of the Nationals pitchers - they are either injured 75% of the time (Armas, Day, Patterson who they wouldn't trade anyway) or pretty much useless (Ortiz, Livan sad to say).

2006-07-28 08:10:34
7.   Alvaro Espinoza
Unwillingness to part with big chips results in less splashy moves. Yanks & Phils may settle on a more subtle deal like Lieber or Lidle as has been mentioned recently.
2006-07-28 08:11:30
8.   BobbyBaseBall
This from ESPN front page:

"The Brewers are trading slugger Carlos Lee to the Rangers as part of a multi-player deal, ESPN's Keith Law has learned. The Brewers are sending Lee, Nelson Cruz and a player to be named to Texas for reliever Francisco Cordero and outfielders Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix. Both teams are working on the medicials."

Thankfully it happened AFTER the sweep.

The Brewers was able to get 2 reasonably productive ML-ers (Cordero and Mench) and decent young 4th-5th outfielders.

How do you think this effects Soriano's price, and to a lesser extent Abreu's (more of a salary dump)?

2006-07-28 08:16:43
9.   Shaun P
More from Buster's blog on pitchers who might be available:

"While there is interest in pitcher Jake Westbrook, the Indians probably will retain the right-hander because if they deal him, they immediately would create a problem of depth in their rotation, and might have to spend more money to find a replacement.

• Lots of scouts were on hand to see Rodrigo Lopez beat the Royals, as Jeff Zrebiec reports, but here are two incontrovertible facts: He leads his league in earned runs and hits allowed."

Lopez's adjusted BP-type numbers aren't very good either: dead last on the Orioles in VORP at -12.8, SNLVAR of 0.3.

His BABIP is high (.340), but batters are toasting him to the tune of .315/.362/.518. Ugh.

Maybe the Red Sox will trade for him. ;)

2006-07-28 08:18:08
10.   singledd
Jon Lieber:
REC 4-7 | SV 0 | ERA 5.52 | WHIP 1.35 7.53 mil
I think the Phils WANT to DUMP Lieber. He would make a good #5 if you don't mind paying him more then twice whathe's worth.
Sori hasn't moved yet and Carlos Lee is on the market. I think Abreu (or outside shot Sori or Lee?) is ours!

If I were Detroit, I get Sori. If I were Minn I'd get Sori. Both have young trading chips. If Minn gets Sori, I favor them for the WS.

2006-07-28 08:20:28
11.   Shaun P
8 Wow, if accurate, that's a big steal for the Rangers. Cruz is thisclose to being ready to play everyday in the bigs, while Laynce Nix, to be honest, sucks. I'm not sure what Melvin is thinking there.

Texas is clearly making a run for it, but that move will help them in the future too. Of course if their pitching falls apart, it won't matter much.

2006-07-28 08:23:08
12.   Shaun P
OK, last swipe from Buster: apparently the Yanks have talked with the Rockies about Ryan Shealy. That would be a great move, though it might mean Andy can kiss the Bronx goodbye.
2006-07-28 08:29:06
13.   vockins
12 While Abreu would be nice, the Yanks could improve significantly by making that move for Shealy and dumping Cairo. Phillips has to go.
2006-07-28 08:29:14
14.   Dimelo
None of the pitchers being mentioned get me excited one bit. I don't want Cashman to get a star, just someone slightly better than Chacon and Ponson.
2006-07-28 08:33:51
15.   BobbyBaseBall
11 Shaun,

I had a whole different read on the Lee-Mench trade. The biggest variable is whether or not Lee stays in Texas this winter. For a two-month rental, and dumping Cordero and Mench who IIRC aren't making tons of money, it doesn't make sense.

Barring any other massive trades to the AL West, the Rangers are now pretty set to be the class of the division. But I just don't believe the pitching can hold up in the post-season.

2006-07-28 08:37:23
16.   Dimelo
Cairo is the least of the Yankees' worries. I might be one of the few people in Yankee land that actually likes Miggy. I can't believe the amount of attention people pay to a player that always seems to be contributing something positive to the team. Cairo is one of the exceptions where I don't let the stats tell me everything....
2006-07-28 08:49:04
17.   Bama Yankee
13 How does replacing Phillips with Shealy help us? I don't disagree that we could do better than Phillips, but is Shealy the answer? Can he play both corner infield positions and an emergency 2B? Does anyone know what kind of fielder he is at first? I do like the fact that he is 6'-5".

16 I agree with you Dimelo, Miggy seems to do the little things that help us win. He has gotten some timely hits and can steal a base when we need it. Not to mention that he has filled in nicely for Cano at 2B. Why would we want to get rid of him?

2006-07-28 08:53:01
18.   C2Coke
16 Cairo'll be a decent enough bench player once Cano is back. That said, it's not his fault having to fill his bizarro role as a almost everyday starting player.

On the other hand, Phillips really has to develop some consistency now that he's part of the regular lineup. After all, he can't afford any sorts of slump if he wants to stay. He is so not Giambi.

2006-07-28 08:57:40
19.   Shaun P
15 You made a great point on the key to the trade really being if Lee stays in Texas or not, Bobby. But I think even if Lee departs Texas, Mench + Cordero + Nix for Cruz is a great trade. Mench is nothing special and this is his age-28 season. Cordero is a hard-throwing 31-year-old reliever. Cruz is 25, will costs peanuts for his age 26-28 seasons, and is hitting .302/.378/.528 with 17 steals in AAA. I could be over-valuing Cruz, but I think the Rangers win big on this one.

Your last paragraph I agree with entirely. =)

2006-07-28 09:01:05
20.   Shaun P
13 I think Shealy is going to hit quite well, better than Andy has - and believe me, I'm one of Andy's biggest fans, but that sub-.300 OBP is killing him. You're right though, Bama, that Andy's defensively versatility is useful. So I'd say dump Cairo and keep Phillips as the super-sub.

BTW, I like Miggy, but let's be honest, he's not an everyday player, and if Cano is out another 3 weeks, playing Cairo everyday at 2B is a huge problem for the Yanks.

2006-07-28 09:03:32
21.   Sliced Bread
What do I think is gunna happen?

To the dismay of Andy Phillips fans, which I'm, and Aaron Guiel fans, I think Cashman's radar is locked on Craig Wilson, and he is, at this moment, prying the 1B/RFer from the Pirates for a reasonable price.

To me, Wilson's biggest plus is his ability to mash lefties. Here's his career line vs southpaws:

.307/.378/.545/.923

This season he's performing at the same level vs lefty pitching:

.302/.404/.556/.959

This, of course, is no guarantee that Wilson will hold his own against the Lirianos and Santanas of the AL, but he appears to be a solid option vs southpaws, and a big upgrade over the Guiel-Bernie platoon.

Not sure who the Pirates are demanding for Wilson, and I trust Cashman will hang up if they're being silly.

Come to think of it, when was the last time the Yanks did business with the Pirates? Rhoden for Drabeck in '86?

2006-07-28 09:04:14
22.   Alvaro Espinoza
To me, Phillips problems have consistently been: (a) "stepping in the well" on too many swings leaving him susceptible to to the outside corner, and (b) missing too many fastballs which ain't good when that's supposed to be your forte.

Otherwise, he's been a steady glove and is certainly a substantial defensive upgrade over 25.

2006-07-28 09:07:14
23.   BobbyBaseBall
19 Thanks Shaun.

I hadn't really heard much about Cruz. But it sounds like that may change in the next couple of years if his numbers trend upwards from his AAA stats. Hell, by just playing in Ameriquest, his slugging pct. jumps about .400 points.

Now the real question is, how is this going to effect the other OF sluggers on the block.

2006-07-28 09:11:35
24.   Schteeve
I am way sour on Andy Phillips. I think Bubba Crosby is more valuable than Andy.
2006-07-28 09:14:44
25.   yankaholic
20 i think IF someone has to be let go.. Nicky Greenie wud b head of the list.. wait he is still on the 25 right?
2006-07-28 09:16:56
26.   Alvaro Espinoza
21 Pittsburgh Pirates traded Enrique Wilson to New York Yankees in exchange for Damaso Marte - June 13, 2001.
2006-07-28 09:17:27
27.   Coco Loco
25 yes, green is still on the 25-man roster. When Cano comes back from the DL (assuming it's before Sept. 1), Green gets sent down.
2006-07-28 09:18:19
28.   yankaholic
27 thx
2006-07-28 09:20:51
29.   Bama Yankee
21 Would we ever use Wilson as a catcher? He has played 40 games at catcher during his career. Say Fasano does not work out, if we could use Wilson as the backup backstop then he allows us to have a more flexible bench or carry an extra pitcher.

Another question about Wilson: Does anyone know about his glove at first? Is he better than Phillips?

2006-07-28 09:30:59
30.   Coco Loco
Anyone else concerned that Wilson's July (211/231/316) has been almost as poor as Phillips's (173/212/296)?
2006-07-28 09:37:47
31.   Schteeve
30 Yes, I'm not a fan of getting Wilson at all. If we can't get a pitcher I say we stand pat.
2006-07-28 09:42:57
32.   unmoderated
big time limb crawling:

cubs get: carlos pena, steven white and melky.
yankes get: mark prior, a first aid kit, a case of old style, and the john hughes collection on DVD.

2006-07-28 09:45:18
33.   Sliced Bread
26 Right, Enrique Wilson. I figured there had to be somebody else from the Pirates.

29 don't know much about his 1B glove, but he seems serviceable, and didn't know he catches, too.

30 I'm sure Cashman will use that to lower the price, and hopefully, he'll make the deal contingent upon a physical if Wilson's playing hurt, and not just slumping.

2006-07-28 09:53:31
34.   Coco Loco
29, 33 Wilson's only caught a little more than 200 career *innings* and has not played the position since 2004. If he catches, it will likely be in an emergency situation, not as Posada's backup. Plus, if he starts hitting well again, that automatically disqualifies him from backing up Posada.
2006-07-28 10:20:33
35.   Javi Javi
32 Don't forget free hot dogs for Ponson for the remainder of the season.
2006-07-28 10:44:48
36.   vockins
17 Maybe Shealy isn't the answer, but none of the answers have Phillips playing first. There is no reason to have that kind of hitter at first, no matter what his glove is like. He's a B rated Doug Minkevzchtcc31h.

If Giambi played first and the Yanks signed a DH rental, great.

I wonder what the Giants want for a Bonds rental?

2006-07-28 10:57:48
37.   unpopster
36 no, no, no...say NO to Barroids!
2006-07-28 10:59:43
38.   Coco Loco
37 Maybe that trade would actually deflect some of the media attention from A-Rod. Of course, ESPN would probably just replace it with speculation from Steve Phillips that Bonds and Giambi are injecting each other secretly.
2006-07-28 11:04:30
39.   markp
Shealy has a home OPS 248 points higher than his road number. Another Coors field illusion. Pass.
2006-07-28 11:09:28
40.   Zack Buckwheat
If I was going to get anyone from Washington, I would want Nick Johnson. I'm surprised I haven't heard more talk about a first baseman, given the vacant hole that is Andy Phillips, and the fact that they are often easier to find than good outfielders.
2006-07-28 11:16:02
41.   Bama Yankee
36 The Yankees need a good glove at first (even if it is just a late inning defensive replacement type guy). I am not saying that guy should be Phillips (although I think he could certainly fit the late inning replacement role) but if we get rid of Phillips, we need to make sure the guy we get can "pick it" at first. Because if Phillips' replacement has a "Giambi-like" glove at first then how does he help us?
2006-07-28 11:25:09
42.   tommyl
36 Please say you are joking in regards to Bonds. I can't think of a more divisive figure right now. Can you imagine him in NYC with this media? The only possible plus is that Bonds' boos will be louder than A-Rod's.

40 I doubt Johnson is easily obtainable. He's at .305/.435/.533 and only making 3.2 million this year. The Nats would want a lot for him I'm thinking. Beides Wilson, what other 1B are available?

2006-07-28 11:26:19
43.   Bama Yankee
40 Good call, Mr. Wheat. That's what I'm talking about, if we're gonna replace Andy lets do it right...

BTW, I enjoyed you on the Little Rascals and SNL. You must be the ghost of Buckwheat, because IIRC didn't John David Stutts assassinate you? Of course, you should have seen it coming because Stutts was voted "Most Likely to Kill Buckwheat" in high school.

2006-07-28 11:26:50
44.   tommyl
What does IIRC stand for?
2006-07-28 11:31:05
45.   dianagramr
IIRC: I Identified Randy Choate ...

(actually ... its If I Recall Correctly)

2006-07-28 11:32:12
46.   tommyl
Hmmm...how's about Rickie Weeks? the Brewers 2B. Anyone know if he can play multiple positions? He's at: .279/.363/.404 with 19 steals and good splits (he's actually better on the road I think). Of course I have no idea of his availability, but its an idea, no?
2006-07-28 11:32:12
47.   Bama Yankee
44 If I remebmer correctly, IIRC stands for "If I Remember Correctly"
2006-07-28 11:32:31
48.   tommyl
45 Thanks!
2006-07-28 11:34:20
49.   vockins
41 If Phillips was used exclusively as a late inning defensive guy, OK. He just can't be getting any more than one AB a game.

If Phillips's hypothetical replacement can hit like a league average first baseman, he's already far better than Phillips. Hell, if Phillips's replacement can play at replacement level, he's better than Phillips. Not by much, but better. There's not any reason to be giving him ABs any more.

2006-07-28 11:40:07
50.   Coco Loco
46 Weeks, even if he were available, makes no sense at all. He does not hit enough to play anywhere but 2B or SS and, with Cano healthy, there's nowhere for Weeks to play.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-07-28 11:41:58
51.   Shaun P
46 Something tells me the Brewers aren't going to trade a 23-year-old second baseman who they took #2 in the draft only 3 years ago. A nice thought, though . . .

49 I can think of only one reason to keep running Phillips out there - of all the hitters the Yanks have on the bench, he's far and away the best. Sad but true.

2006-07-28 11:46:48
52.   Coco Loco
46, 51 Why would we want Weeks when we have Cano? They are the same age, have around the same number of ABs in the majors, and Cano's OPS is 40 points higher. I don't know anything about Weeks's glove, so am just going on hitting here.
2006-07-28 11:47:32
53.   vockins
42 I am kidding, but the more I think about it, the more I like it. You'd just have to hope that he doesn't have to appear in court before the playoffs. He'd take all the heat off of ARod, too.

Bonds at DH would be just incredible. If Sheffsui came back - jesus, mary, and joseph, that lineup would be ruthless. Yankee hate would be unprecedented, just off the meter.

2006-07-28 11:57:31
54.   Bama Yankee
Maybe if we get Shealy from Colorado, we can ship him off in some kind of package that helps us get Nick Johnson from Washington...
2006-07-28 11:57:58
55.   Shaun P
52 Don't ask about Weeks glove. Seriously.

(If you put much stock in evaluating defense on the number of errors a guy has made, Weeks has made a ton. If you prefer more advanced metrics, such as BP's Rate, he's still not very good, only 93 with 100 being average.)

The difference between Cano and Weeks is their upside. BP's PECOTA gave Cano a 10% chance of being worth about 4.5 wins above replacement; meanwhile, Weeks had a 10% chance of being about 7.5 wins above replacement. Because otherwise you're right, they are pretty equivalent with the bat right now (Weeks .271 EqA, 2.7 WARP1 vs Cano .265 EqA, 3.4 WARP1).

The difference in WARP1 is their gloves, Weeks having a 93 Rate as I said above, Cano having a 115 Rate which is awesome.

Finally, FWIW, Weeks is much more of a basestealer than Cano is (19 SB v 5 CS for Weeks, 3 SB vs 2 CS for Robbie).

53 That's almost too scary to think about, on a number of levels.

2006-07-28 11:58:09
56.   tommyl
52 I was mostly just messing around instead of working. I was more thinking as a replacement for Cairo/Green till Cano comes back, then as a replacement for Andy as the utility man off the bench when he does. That's assuming he could play a bit of 1B though, which he might not want to. As I said, he's not really available, I just felt like mentioning someone besides Wilson, Abreu and Sori for once and he's certainly more available than Nick Johnson is.
2006-07-28 11:58:47
57.   JL25and3
46 Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder are the two players the Brewers hope to build their franchise around. They're not trading him.
2006-07-28 12:01:02
58.   tommyl
53 Well if we batted Giambi, Bonds and Posada in a row we could possibly have the slowest baserunning combo on earth. It'd be like the scene at the beginning of Office Space when the guy with the walker is outpacing the cars on the freeway.
2006-07-28 12:01:58
59.   tommyl
57 Sigh, I figured as much. But if other people can suggest Nick Jonhson, I figured why not? :)
2006-07-28 12:09:52
60.   yankz
58 Ah, Office Space. What a classic.
2006-07-28 12:27:40
61.   rbj
58 That's painfully slow. Imagine Melky at bat just after Posada, and he hits one out. Next thing you now, he gets thrown out three times for passing all three of them.

Quite frankly, I don't see much happening. There are too many buyers, and what the Yanks need (4th/5th starter, OF bat) others need too. Maybe simply swap mediocre pitchers in hopes that a change of scenary will produce another Small/Chacon.

2006-07-28 12:33:26
62.   yankaholic
Right, whatever happened to those Pinero-Chacon rumours..

definitely worth more.. than Ponson.. right??

2006-07-28 12:36:01
63.   Sliced Bread
I know the Yanks have been interested in Jason Michaels, but what would it take to get Casey Blake from the Indians?

Plays RF, LF, 1B, 3B

Is hitting:
.303/.386/.516 with 12 HR, 42 RBI

just returned from DL with strained oblique and took Liriano deep.

I think he had mostly been playing RF before he got hurt, and according to Indians' official website, as of 7/26 he's splitting time at 1B with Victor Martinez. Hmmm.
I wonder if that's because he was hurt.

He makes about $3 mill per.

2006-07-28 12:41:15
64.   yankz
Looking long term, is it impossible to see Melky taking over as CF after Damon's contract is up? The timing would be pretty good, as Melky would be hitting his prime, and a lot of people don't think he can stick as a corner OF. Is his CF defense that terrible? I seem to remember a quote of someone telling Bernie that Melky was going to take his job someday.
2006-07-28 12:48:19
65.   yankaholic
64 No.. his defense has improved infront of our eyes..

when Melky came up.. i heard (take it with a pinch of salt) Mike Kay sy on YES that he spoke with the "AA" hitting coach and that guy thinks Melky can become a batting champ..

also, though he is not a terrific defender he has a good arm n speed.. that was the quote..

i think he can take over.. i think everyone has been genuinely surprised by how well he has filled in.. maybe he was thought of as a 4th OFer or 3 yr pjt.. but to see him mature AND contribute is heartening..

i think u r onto something there.. with that train of thought..

and personally i don see how J Damon compeltes his 4 yrs in CF

2006-07-28 12:49:46
66.   singledd
ALERT:
I'm not the best with 'new fangled' stats, but this site seems to be very important for us Yankee fans.
Please everyone, take a look at:
http://yankeeswpa.blogspot.com/

Alex and Cliff...
Maybe you guys could give us a breakdown of WPA?
How telling are these numbers?

If these numbers are a true indication of who is contributing to wins, it really puts a hurt on ARod and Cano, and tells us how full of holes and unbalanced this team is.

I would have loved to see these numbers for 2005... when ShefSui played.

So guys... what does this mean????

2006-07-28 12:58:36
67.   yankaholic
66 maybe Bill James is really a hipnotist..

he throws geeky formulae and all of a sudden baseball is harder to predict n fathom than calculus..

it also means.. when ARod is said to be hitting 300 with RISP 2 outs.. they invent a new catch term -- post BIG ORTIZ BLOOM -- "7th ining n later close games"..

and they throw out..

u know what they are telling u is.. if a 2-1 game is decided by the winning HR in bottom 3rd by AROD.. it doesnt matter much.. coz it was not hit after 7th..

even though.. that won the game..

i would love someone to do a early and close stats..

u know tied scores.. how Ortiz is hitting.. seems to me he wakes up after 9 pm everyday..

2006-07-28 13:07:07
68.   singledd
67 Those stats seems to call Jetes, Giambi, Posada and our pitching pretty well. Actual, Cano and ARod (as shown) seem to be the only surprises. Are you tell me those stats only include 'close and late'?

WPA - Win Probability Added
This is not a meaningful stat?

2006-07-28 13:13:52
69.   yankaholic
68 no.. i am not faulting that stat only..

i am just saying there are too many stats out there..

we have to understand.. that 3/10 is good in baseball..

even tho they fail 7/10 times..

given that 70% times a GOOD player fails..

there are so many inventable stats that can make ur players look terrible..

how i use that 7/10 and 3/10 can make us completely misunderstand or even twist it..

for instance i saw a link on waswatching.com

Steve Lombardi showed who was helping us to win games..

and i saw Cairo, Phillips ranked above Arod and Giambi stats-wise...

thats true based on that formula.. but i can say from a layman point of view.. Giambi n ARod help us more to win..

thats my point.. i think there are too many iventible stats that can make any player good or bad..

as i say, for fun lets consider inings before 7.. we may find out Ortiz sucks.. u know.. its just B James has created too many geeky analysts..

i amnot as crude as Joe Morgan and dont wanna say stats are invalid.. am just saying stats can be overblown soemtimes

2006-07-28 13:18:54
70.   Shaun P
68 singledd, Steve over at waswatching.com had a post on WPA a couple days ago, specifically for the Blog "Clutchiness" . The guy who writes that blog, Dan Smith, does a great job of explaining what WPA numbers mean in terms of comparing players:

http://tinyurl.com/ph8rx

I'm guessing he's probably got a good explaination of WPA in general at his blog (clutchiness.blogspot.com), but I don't know for sure.

All that said, I don't put a lot of stock in evaluating players by WPA beacuse of something Dan said in the post I linked to:

"[T]here's nothing inherent about being better in high leverage situations that means that player is actually any good."

2006-07-28 13:32:31
71.   Bama Yankee
69 I agree with you about the use of statistics. Here's a quote for you:
"When I negotiated Bob Stanley's contract with the Red Sox, we had statistics demonstrating he was the third-best pitcher in the league. They had a chart showing he was the sixtieth-best pitcher on the Red Sox!" - Agent Bob Woolf
2006-07-28 13:35:26
72.   singledd
OK. Just read up on WPA on hardball times, and they were clear that WPA in NOT an evaluator of talent... but is a measure of actual performance. The theory behind the formula is not complex, and the 'stats' on based on the average of results from many games over the previous years. It also states this is NOT a predicter of the future, but rather a random stat specific to the moment (not the past or future).

My only issue is that it is weighted proportionally heavier the later the game gets. My feeling is 3 RBI in the first inning is everybit as important as 3 in the 9th.

It seems this is WIN shares, weighted by the (lateness of the) inning.

It could measure 'Clutch' except these scores are independent of the game score. If you broke down WPA by game situation (ahead by 4+, Ahead by 0-3, behind by 1-3, behind by 4+), is seems to be a relative measure of 'Clutch' (for what that is worth).

By the by, from Hardball Times:
ARod: average 2003-2005

Bases Loaded ----------- .371/.422/.657
Close and Late --------- .276/.392/.553
Men on, two out -------- .280/.381/.553
Runners On ------------- .292/.387/.542
Scoring Position ------- .273/.381/.482
Scoring Pos./two out --- .270/.392/.495

2006-07-28 13:42:22
73.   singledd
Hardball Times on ARod: decent article.
http://tinyurl.com/s98n9
2006-07-28 14:04:45
74.   randym77
Mutter, grumble. Looks like it's Bernie, not Guiel, even with a righty pitcher.

That's assuming the game is played. The weather's not looking good. :-P

2006-07-28 14:15:08
75.   Barron
http://tinyurl.com/ohc7h

David Pinto came up with a real gem over at Baseball Musings. Take a look at anyone you want to.

I can't find anything wrong with A-Rod's numbers that can't be attributed to sample size.

And Re: the title of this post...

"The waiting game sucks! Let's play Hungry, Hungry Hippos!"

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