On the strike-percentage thing - is there any rules of thumb out there about what's the right number? I seem to recall you quoting numbers quite close to 67% for good starts. I wonder how this depends on umpire error as well as pitchers' control.

Re heat and Giambi, one would think the 92-mph pitch was intended to make him speed up too much on the 82-mph pitch. A steady diet of fastballs will speed up his bat, won't it?

Cliff,

I think your worry about Giambi is exactly the right one -- and a lot more realistic than the worries that the he was really the .195 statue we saw during the slump. This is actually what started worrying me about him during the '03 playoffs. For what encouragement we may take, miserable as he looked on high fastballs during those playoffs, he did get those 2 critical homers off Pedro (and another against Looper in the series).

I came here really excited because I saw how well Giambi had done last night on SportsCenter, only to have Cliff's comments about him feel like cold water has been dumped on me. I can't believe his bat speed is still so bad that he can't hit a fastball. At least, Giambi has been embarassed into actually swinging the bat and is making contact so that is a good first step.

Despite Pavano's high pitch count, his shut out is really great. Apparently, Mel's suggestions are working for Pavano. I like the strike outs because he isn't known as a strike out guy. Nice to hear that the defense was solid as well.

I am very optimistic that the Yankees can win the last game against Seattle and then maybe even sweep the Mets. Pedro will be batting. I really miss Clemens right about now. He would settle up the old debts.

Question: Assuming that Giambi was doing steroids for a LONG time, that he quit last year, and that his health problems were related to steroid use/withdrawal... is it possible that if he continues to take care of himself and continues to play, that he might get more 'back into form'?. I don't know why his bat speed would degenerate so much... he's not that old. Any chance that with playing time and confidence, his bat speed may improve from what it is now?

If we want to start throwing cold water on things, just consider that the ten game streak has come at the expense of two sad sack teams, that are now both 15-24, a winning pct. of .385. I'll take this as a starting point for both the team and Jason. And Bernie, too.
What ticks me is skipping Wang's next start.

\\the ten game streak has come at the expense of two sad sack teams, that are now both 15-24, a winning pct. of .385//

Better to go 10-0 against those teams than 6-4...you don't get to choose your opponents, you just beat the ones put in front of you. And riding a hot streak like this into matchups against the Mutts and Sox is the best you can hope for.

Say Cliff, how do you make judgements on bat speed or is this something you are passing on from another source?

In spring training I recall that Mattingly said that Jason's bat speed was "back", but now you are saying it is not there. Batters get fooled on pitches and you will see them swing late any number of times (just as they will be way in front of a changeup). How does one go from that possibility to making an observation on bat speed?

In any event, I think Jason's game problems this year has always been mental and we're seeing the result of steroid dependency more than anything else.

One hot streak is going to toast all that and here's hoping for a monster May-June tear. Can you imagine Sheff/Matsui/ ARod/Jason all in synch? Talk about Murderers Row, this is going to be Serial Killer's Alley...

Don't get me wrong, I'll take a ten (shall we go for eleven tonight?) game streak against sad sack teams, I just don't think it's fair to single Giambi out for doing well against poor teams. I'll put down the entire team's performance lately as the team waking up and getting into the swing of things.

rilkefan, yes a 2:1 ratio (which you could round down to 65 percent) is ideal. Below 60 is bad, above 70 is exceptional. Yes, a bad game by an umpire will mess with this percentage. At the same time balls put in play count as strikes, so if the opposition gets lots of hits, but early in the count, it will artificially inflate that percentage (usually this is not an issue as pitchers who get roughed up tend to fall behind). Where this really gets skewed is with guys such as Quantrill/Lieber/Mateo who pitch to contact. Mateo threw 75 percent strikes last night. Obviously, strike percentage alone will not tell you if a pitcher was effective, but it does add detail to the picture painted by the rest of his line. Was he dominant (high percentage, good line)? Lucky (low percentage, good line)? Lacking command (as opposed to control) or movement on his pitches (high percentage, bad line)? Or just flat awful (low percentage, bad line)?

JayD, my judgements on Giambi's bat speed are from observation. I can't remember the last time I saw him make contact with a 90+ MPH fastball, let alone hit one with authority. Whenever I see 90-something on the YES gun during a Giambi at-bat it's after a swing and miss (or yet another take).

That said, here's an assignment for you all: Keep and eye on the radar gun during Giambi's at-bats and let me know what you see him do with those 90+ MPH heaters, particularly the ones high in the zone.

Rilkefan, until I see it happen, I won't believe his bat can speed up. Either way, if I'm an opposing pitcher/hitter/manager, I give him nothing but high heat until his bat does speed up (because I don't believe he will), then I take advantage of his sped up bat with breaking stuff.

Thus far the only pitcher I've seen really challenge Giambi is Rich Harden, who struck him out on three pitches (way behind on a fastball, then two more heaters he took for strikes) the only time he faced him in his last start in Oakland (when Harden faced Giambi in the Bronx he was having trouble throwing his heater for strikes, thus he walked him twice and struck him out once in three trips).

Fred, Giambi's inability to hit the high heat in the '03 playoffs was less about bat speed and more about his knee injury. His backside would give out on him and he just couldn't physically hit those pitches. That said, supposedly he stopped using steroids half way through that season and one advantage of steroids that is often ignored is not increased strength, but increased quickness (your muscles fire faster).

Off topic: Simone, great observation about Pedro. I bet the Yanks could get Brown to plunk him.

The Giambi "analysis" is biased.

MarkP, I can accept being wrong (watch out for that high heat and report back to me if I am), but I'm not biased. I don't know if you recall or not, but I was calling for Yankee fans to support Giambi this offseason and was hoping to get something solid out of him. I'd much prefer he be useful than cost the team $60-80 million for nothing and take away at-bats from players who are. I'm just reporting what I see. The advantage of this format is that you can counter with your own observations, but I must protest your cries of bias.

The last thing the Yankees need right now is for somebody to get ejected/fined/suspended, or, even worse, hurt at the bottom of a beanball-induced scrum just because we all agree that Pedro Martinez is a bastard. Can we please stop trying to settle up old debts? This isn't "The Godfather: Part II."

I'd be shocked if any bean balls were exchanged Friday. It's definitely not Torre's style. If Torre hasn't exploded over the last 3 years where the Red Sox have hit 3 Yankees to every Red Sox hit by a pitch than he isn't going to make this weekend a crusade for Old Testament justice. Calm down.

I'm more worried about Brown imploding in front of the whole city on Friday night than anything else.

He's hit a lot of balls very solidly for the past week. He hit s decent pitch for a game-winning double on Sunday along with a couple of other well hit balls that were caught.
His second hit last night was very well hit, and he hit the HR off of a guy who got everyone else out save a single and a walk.
His OPS is currently 52 points higher than Hideki Matsui's. Where's the "I still do not believe that Matsui can catch up with the high heat." analysis?
Who are these hitters that are able to routinely hit high heat? The reason pitchers with good or better velocity throw fastballs at and above the letters is because very, very few hitters are capable of doing much with that pitch.
Microanalyzing Giambi while giving guys like Matsui a pass is bias.

Mark, I don't want to get into an argument, but I've only been refering to Matsui as "Slumpzilla" and "Groundzilla" for a month now. I've cooled that as of late because he's 9 for his last 27 with four doubles. In fact, here are the two players in question over their last 20 ABs:

Giambi: 7 H, 1 2B, 1 HR, 11 TB, 4 RBI, 3 R, 2 BB, 5 K

Matsui: 7 H, 3 2B, 0 HR, 10 TB, 1 RBI, 5 R, 1 BB, 3 K

The biggest gap there is RBIs. Matsui had five in the 7 at-bats prior to those 20. Giambi's last RBI prior to the four listed above was on 4/23.

I'm not pleased with how either looks at the plate right now. Matsui's just harder to figure. Giambi I believe I have pegged. As I've said, let's all watch to find out if I'm right.

I agree with markp. As much I am not convinced that Giambi's "swing" still exists, Matsui is getting a huge pass these days. Attribute it to moving to CF then back to LF on any given day or etc. But, I think everyone should be concerned over Matusi's swing selections and reduced homerun ball numbers than Giambi's ability to hit any high heat. If everyone hit it then it wouldn't be called high heat.

Back to reality and being good ole bias joe... Who here is annoyed at Giambi's dedication to immediately look down and clean the left side of the plate with his cleats of white chalk and dirt every time a pitch is delivered. He looks like he is trying to learn the waltz out there! hah That has to be up there with the most annoying batter box routines in baseball. Nomar up top is a given...but the person who takes the cake for me was Knoublach. What's your favorite/least favorite batter box routine in baseball?

"Can we please stop trying to settle up old debts? This isn't "The Godfather: Part II."

Against Pedro, never. I don't think myself as a particularly vengeful person, but Pedro has it coming 100 times over. I'll settle for a Yankee pitcher plunking him any where from the neck down hard and good just once.

I'll settle for them scoring seven runs off of him in three innings and sending him to the showers.

Jedi, I'm with you on the Giambi thing. It's less disturbing now that he's actually swinging, but it used to be: take, smooth dirt, take, smooth dirt . . . take strike three, sit down.

Pete O'Brein used to wiggle the bat through his practice swings prior to a pitch in a way that drove me nuts. It still wigs me out just thinking about it. I always thought Soriano pounding the velcro on his gloves was pretty stupid. Matsui's shoulder shrug kind of bugs me. Ichiro's dramatic bat pointing and sleeve adjusting is cool once, after which it's infuriating. I never liked when players would pull the backs of their jersey over their shoulders (Danny Tartabull and Kevin Seitzer come to mind). Lastly, I always loved Jim Leyritz's bat spin, but I hated the little bat slapping hip wiggle he'd do after it.

It's funny but as a Yanks fan I loved Pedro. I think he's a witty and honest guy. People from the media claim that Yanks players had a personal grudge against him, and then in the off-season you had Posada and A-Rod talking about how much they respected him and would love to play with the guy. I don't think Pedro headhunted against the Yanks. He wasn't against using the inside of the plate as a tool to pitch well. In that infamous game where he sent both Jeter and Sori to the hospital, he wasn't beaning them. Heck, Jeter lunged into that pitch.

About the criticism that the Yanks have done this against awful teams. A ten game winning streak is an exceptional thing to do in baseball. Please ask Tigers fans about this who haven't experienced such a streak in 37 years.

An excellent point, Nick. After moaning about 11-19, this same group (my god, the cup is actually less than half-empty if you hold it up to the light...) smoothly shift gears into the "awful teams" logic.

I can't stand Carl Everett's destroy-the-batter's-box-and-practically-stand-on-the-place routine. especially when he hits left-handed.

But that's surely exacerbated by my extreme dislike. Of all the possible Red Sox batters to break up Mussina's perfect game! Arrgh! I'm red-lining thinking about it.

I like Thome's pointing the bat to the outfield schtick.

loved the player, hated the spitting: Tony Phillips. I just remember him incessantly squirting tobacco juice onto the dirt, and then getting a clutch hit against the yanks. The spitting was part of his batting routine. Gross.

Pedro won't be pitching Friday night btw. He had a cortisone shot in his hip. He's set to go on Sunday against Pavano.

Red Sox and former Expos fans must be love-hating that match-up, the prospect vs. the legend pitching for the two NY teams.

i hadn't thought of the Pete O'Brien wiggle in some time.. thanks a lot for putting that back in my head! The Leyritz wiggle always bugged me, I always loved the Winfield bat sway (not to mention the illfitting helmet) and who can forget the Nomah!

I don't like Martinez--just in case anybody wants to accuse me of bias, I figured I'd make it clear where mine lies--but if you don't think he'd been throwing at the Yankees (regardless of how close to the plate some of those guys stand) over the past six years, then I don't know what you've been watching.

And of course, Sunday's is the game I was just given a pair of tickets for, so I get to boo Martinez. Martinez is one of those guys whose greatness I acknowledge, but whom I dislike anyway. I view him as more of a spoiled child than as witty and free-spirited.

Those 2 awful teams just took 4 of 6 from the Red Sox... and traveling to and playing on the West Coast is never fun. Lets hope they are not-so-awful when they play Baltimore.

Um, singledd, that game isn't over yet ...

the elipses is now a period. the game is now over. singledd's point is official.