0 His reasoning is a bit specious. You replace Abreu with Nady, who is arb. elgible. That saves you money and replaces your #3 hitter. Matsui comes back and slots in to be the DH/part time corner OF, or 1B. A-Rod, Jeter, Cano, Posada, Damon and Molina are set. On the position side then you need a 1B and a CF, possibly C if Posada can only play 1B (but then you don't need a 1B, though he will be below average there).

For pitching, you have Wang, Joba, and Hughes. You may also have IPK or Aceves as a reasonable option for a #5 man. That means we're short a front end starter and some depth, but the depth can be filled by Horne, Marquez and Rasner, as well as some of the more recent draftees. I'm not going to worry about the pen at this point.

So that means we're short:
1B or C
a starter
CF

Signing Sabathia takes care of the starter. Tex would take care of the 1B, or we could choose to pursue a lesser option. I'd strongly advocate Dunn if he's available. He'd be cheaper, shorter term and still rakes. We could also try to resign Giambi at a reduced price for a 1 or 2 year deal. Ditto on Moose and Pettitte.

So....that means we're short a CF because Melky sucks. Well, there are a few options there, we could try to stopgap with Damon in CF and someone like Melky/Gardner coming off the bench to rest him a couple of days a week. Or the organization could get very aggressive and slot in Ajax. Alternatively we could try to sign or trade for someone like Rowand, but again only as a stopgap as I expect Ajax to be the CF by midseason.

Now sure, what happened this year could happen again. Everyone gets hurt and Jeter and Cano stink up the joint. Jeter might decline, but he might bounce back. Cano should bounce back. I don't see the doom and gloom for next year.

Watching this team play is torture, but an off day is even worse. I hate off days.

They look an awful lot like last year's edition too, which did ok, I suppose.

2 And the off-season is even worser. Maybe a month or two, just to recharge the batteries, but not 4-5.

2 I'm feeling refreshed, myself. I also really enjoyed our manager discussion.

1 Yeah, the whole reason the Yanks have 48 right-handed relief prospects is so that they don't have to spend $12M on guys like Howry and Marte. Marchman forgot that Melancon (salary: MLB minimum) can easily fill Marte's role, so (by his reckoning), that's another $11.6M to play with.

Marchman also left out buyouts (Giambi's is $5M, for example), and payments to guys in the minors with MLB contracts (Miranda and Brackman).

Otherwise, I see the exact same 3 holes you do: 1B, SP, CF. With those 3 holes, and every free agent gone, I've got the Yanks' '09 payroll at $141.77M.

My guess is some combo of Gardner/Christian/maybeevenMelky fills CF until Jackson is definitely ready (and that's another MLB minimum salary, so $142M).

Tex at $20M, CC at $25M, and say one of Pettitte or Moose back at ~$12M (they don't need both if they get CC), and that's just a hair under $200M.

1 Your way makes more sense, but it's still dependent on a lot of what happened this year not happening next year. Maybe not to the exact same players, but shit happens. Especially with a bunch of mid-to-late 30s guys on one team.

Like you, I think AJax starts in AAA next year, but could be knocking on the door in July. And I think Montero's bat might be closer than people think, depending on which position he plays.

I don't think resigning Giambi (price & year dependent) is not that bad of an idea if the only alternative is doling out boatloads of years and money to Teixeira. Maybe Montero would be a capable 1B at 21 when Giambi is done at 40. And I'd hate to have Montero suck at catching, switch to first, and be blocked by Teixeira and his massive salary with 6-8 years remaining. One ridiculously expensive and long contract is a pain to navigate around, but three (A-Rod, Teixeira, and CC perhaps) would be trouble, IMO.

Cashman has his work cut out for him.

He's right, they'll both wear pinstriped uniforms and play in the Bronx.

4 There's plenty of baseball, if you know where to look. Shortly after the postseason ends, NPB's postseason should still be going. Then there may be a US barnstorming tour of Japan. Then there's the winter leagues and the Serie del Caribe, which ends right around the time pitchers & catchers report.

Sabathia is going to get A-Rod money, or am I reading that wrong?

Because if someone pays a 28 yr old fat starting pitcher 25 million per year, they are nuts.

Yankees need two of the following three:

Dunn
Tex
Burrell.

They need to add a bunch of HRs for next year. I still believe, the IPK debacle notwithstanding, that a lot of the pitching needs can be filled without dropping 25 million on one dude.

6 I didn't mean to imply that my way doesn't involve risk, I was just trying to be realistic. We can't go out and sign everyone and you also have to take into account who's on the farm and you don't want blocked. Ajax seems legit, so I'd hate to block him with an overpriced, mediocre and declining CF, hence a stopgap seems like a good idea. Your point about Montero is well taken, but I still think he's 2-3 years off. The jump to AA is usually really tough and he's at Low-A right now. I think he spends all of next year in Trenton, possibly with a late season move to Scranton. Majors is 2010 at the earliest for him but we'll see. Don't forget we also have Austin Romine down there, who doesn't hit as well but is likely a better defensive catcher.

Next year is still a crapshoot, but then most years are. To get to teams like 1998 you have to endure some crapshoot years and have a lot of luck. Someone on the last thread pointed out that with either very young or older players there are risks (injuries, decline or not performing up to expectations). That's what we have right now and what we will have for some time. Longer term this is a team that could be really, really good soon. There's a reason nearly all of our minor league teams are either dominating or near the top of their standings. A few more drafts and some position prospects and we're really strong. I see next year as transition ver. 2. Still in transition but a better shot to contend. I'm ok with that.

Where are these guys the A's always find? The not so gaudy high OBP guys? That's who we need. Guys to clog the bases so when A-Rod jacks one its for 3 runs and not one since someone just hit into a DP ahead of him.

Tommyl's version seems pretty plausible to me. He's right that the aim is not to construct a team that nothing can go wrong with. That's impossible. Going with younger players does mean that the probability of injuries goes down, but remember that it only goes down, it doesn't go away (as the Yankee pitchers on the DL this year demonstrate conclusively!).
Billy B's magic 8 ball would be great. We could not only find the under-the-radar high OBP guys, but also dump the high-profile pitchers who are about to decline and discover one or two unheralded pitchers who are about to have near-all-star years. But I think we need a plan that doesn't involve Cashman stealing Billy's magic 8 ball. (Cashman does have the magic checkbook, though.)

11 "Someone on the last thread pointed... "

That was me. We're basically in agreement. I don't think that Cashman can go out and sign two free agents and all will be right with the world and the Yankees will be the cat's meow again.

Teixeira, I don't think, is that important of an acquisition. Even without Montero, there's still the possibility of having to move Posada or, less likely, Jeter or A-Rod to first. It's tough to justify signing a 1B/Dh guy to such a long term contract when there are quite a few other options already under team control.

I'm not keen on many of the position FAs, though, which makes off-season solutions difficult. I do like CC a lot. A big power lefty. However, I'm not a huge fan of giant contracts.

12 I think that window of opportunity closed. I don't think there are a ton of not flashy high OBP guys who aren't highly regarded anymore.

5 Thanks, me too.

I think that Cashman might have to be more active in the trade market than he usually is. Among other things, I really don't like any of the in-house solutions for CF, even for the short term. Damon comes the closest to acceptable, but I don't know if he can handle CF every day anymore. And while Jackson might be ready by midseason, he might not be. That's an awful lot of eggs to put in a AA basket.

15 And yet, year after year Beane finds a Jack Cust out there.

15 Nick Markakis? Ryan Theriot? Brad Hawpe?

I think Tommyl really wanted the magic 8 ball, though.

18 The way the economy is going I'd prefer the magic checkbook.

5 And yeah, Marchman is neglecting the Yankees one treasure trove: relief pitching. There's no reason to spend millions of dollars on a Bobby Howry to "solidfy" the pen.

9 i'd give CC 25 million a year.

but then, he'd only get 5 years max from me.

16 david dejesus has been on my mind for awhile ... he can always slide over to LF after Damon is gone.

10 are we starting a beer league softball team?

11 it's nice that the yankees keep saying montero's a catcher ... problem is, NObody else agrees with them ... he's going to be a first baseman.

24 Eh, Jeter committed like 100 errors or something his first year or so and he panned out at SS. The kid's 19, give him another year or two and then we'll see. He can still learn and improve.

25 there's a difference between everybody thinks you can play the position and won't have to move off of it and have a bad year with errors in low professional ball where fields are shitty
and
nobody thinks you have the tools or ability or the body to stick at the position and are going to have to move so that when you actually do improve your play, you only nudge it from abysmal to awful

scouts can be wrong, but i'd say the overwhelming outcome in this case is that montero ends up at 1st. i imagine that's why the yankees keep drafting talented catchers.

24 Exactly.

25 Its not ability, its size. Montero is, at 18, already 6'4" and 225 lbs. Catchers that big don't handle the wear and tear of the position that well (see Joe Mauer among many others).

Besides, with a bat that special, why play him at a position where the wear and tear, and risk of injury, is so huge? Let's call him a 1B and be done.

All that said, he's an 18-year-old in Low-A. I don't think the Yanks should sign Tex for more a contract longer than 4 years anyway, but let's not worry about 2011 and Montero and Tex blocking each other for now. A lot could happen between now and then.

I wonder if Seth Smith could be had from the Rockies or Joe Mather from the Cards.

Neither are super-highly rated prospects and getting near to ML-job-or-new-team time.

21 And that is why the Yanks are not going to end up with CC, IMHO, unless they offer A-Rod money ($27M or $28M) for 4 or 5 years. He's much more likely to take the longer deal, because it really does set him up for life. And with the way pitchers get hurt, why would he want to take the risk?

Tex, on the other hand, I think is far more likely to take a bigger money, shorter contract vs a big money long term contract. Nowhere near the injury risk. He'll want to be on the market again at 33.

27 My point wasn't that they shouldn't sign Teixeira solely because Montero is likely a 1B. There's more than one guy on the Yankees, or in the system, that will likely need that spot in the line-up. A silly long-term contract for such a catch-all position is tough to justify. It happened with Giambi (though, despite the love for Nick Johnson, it worked in the Yankees' favor more or less).

A four-year contract wouldn't be an issue (even if the only foreseeable problem was Montero), but we all know it's going to take twice that many years.

Shaun, is Joe Mauer the example you want?? As a catcher, he's a perennial MVP candidate. As a 1B, he'd be merely good.
That's why it's worth waiting to see whether Montero could be a, well, let's say minimally decent defensive catcher. Even factoring in the additional wear and tear, he's so valuable if he can catch that, in my opinion, it would be crazy not to use him that way if possible.

31 Unfortunately, with Montero it's apparently a combination of size and ability (or lack thereof). Nobody, but nobody outside the organization thinks he can make it as a catcher. I don't know if the Yankees believe it, or if they're just sticking with it as long as possible, for that one-in-a-million chance.

30 i still blame nick "man of glass" johnson for setting us on the long sorry path of signing aging free agents. he should have been our all-star 1st baseman in 2002, not giambi ... ah well, best laid plans and such ...

33 Yes, but we really had to have Javy Vazquez. Really. Oh, the pain.

32 Right, Mauer is a vg defensive catcher.
But I think you're exaggerating the consensus about Montero. John Sickels noted (in June):

... fielding .991 right now, has an average range factor, and has caught 26 percent of runners trying to steal on him, which isn't good but isn't as bad as what he did in the lower minors. He's made progress, but will it be enough? End-of-season scouting reports and stats will help us know.

I think maybe the real problem is: he's fat. I've never seen him and people don't quite say it, but that's my impression.

29 I would like to think that by the time a player reaches free agency, that he's set for life.

32 I think the Montero experiment behind the plate will end soon. It's no coincidence that his OPS is around 1.100 the last month...that's when they started DHing him regularly and playing Austin Romine more and more exclusively. As cult said, that's why the Yankees keep drafting catchers (beside the fact that pitchers and catchers are the positions most difficult to develop and therefore most sought after in trades).

35 Jesus Montero
http://tinyurl.com/6fo9q6
http://tinyurl.com/5zxbnt
http://tinyurl.com/5ljecf

35 He's not fat. Google him. There's pictures on the net of him. He's a very solid 6'4", 230. The fear is that he's still growing not that he's fat.

31 You bet Mauer is the example I want. I am not talking about ability; Montero's power potential dwarfs Mauer's. Jesus has already hit more HR this year, against guys 2-3 years older than him, than Mauer did in his entire minor league career. Mauer's bat will never play at 1B in the bigs (though it could play at 3B); Montero's could easily.

I'm talking solely size and effect. Mauer is a catcher, a big guy (6'5" 220 lbs says b-r.com), and has already missed many games throughout his career (and a huge chunk of 2007) thanks to knee problems. And he's only 25. Admittedly playing on turf hasn't helped, but still. Mauer was/is an athlete - high school QB, heavily recruited. Montero, I'm willing to wager, isn't nearly as athletic. I just can't see him lasting injury-free behind the plate.

36 Me too, but you can bet that's not how many of them think. And we know that's not how Scott Boras (Tex's agent) thinks. I was approaching it from their perspective.

30 I think 4 years $25M - shoot, give him $27M if that's what it takes - gets it done. Boras is Mr. OptOut Clause. A-Rod and Drew's contracts had them so that, if the market went up (which it did), they could get better deals. And make Boras more money.

The Baseball Channel starts next year. Attendance is going through the stratosphere. MLB's gross revenues last year were bigger than the NFL's. I see no end to the money train in sight, and I'll bet Boras doesn't either. He will want Tex back on the market in 4 years (it's another pay day for him, too). So whoever offers the most money for the shortest term, I think, will get Tex.

I don't think Mauer is a great example, his bat is almost mainly contact and BB%, I doubt he'll ever slug much past .450 regularly to make him truly valuable other than catcher. Whereas Montero projects to have 1B power. Of the league leaders in OPS in A, there's only three guys, the same age (18 or 19), ahead of Montero: Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and Michael Stanton. Two OFers and a 1B, and all blue chippers (And the Braves have two of them).

Here's some numbers from 18/19 year olds in A for thought:

PA/HR/2B+3B/K%/BB%/BABIP
Montero (18) - 489/14/31/14.5%/7.2%/.354
Heyward (18) - 473/11/29/14.8%/10.6%/.371
Freeman (18) - 490/18/37/14.7%/8.8%/.351
Stanton (18) - 475/33/27/27.6%/10.1%/.344

And some recent big name prospects:

Upton (18) - 499/12/29/19%/10%/.312
Rasmus (19) - 369/11/14/16%/9%/.350
Bruce (19) - 497/16/47/21%/9%/.351
Snider (19) - 522/16/42/24.7%/10.3%/.382

I went back through the last 5 years and 18/19 year olds that hit like that and fail are rare. They're typically fast-movers (unless a team is trying to turn them into something they're not). It doesn't make Montero a sure thing, of course, and there are oddities (cough Eric Duncan cough), but the numbers are pretty interesting. Hmm, I wonder if Cash can pry Brad Nelson from the Brewers.

40 Understood, and agreed.

No reason to waste a bat like Montero's at a position that can harm him and limit his ABs.

35 Perhaps I am exaggerating the consensus, but not by too too much. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

As I put on my body armor and helmet I'll say there is NO reason to replace Melky. He still rates above average on D and is top 10% with the arm. I will guess nextyear, after he is healed from his (Yankee sponsored) lobotomy, I expect he will have a better year then 2008. Ajax should be along by 2009. If a Beltran type comes along withour an impossible contract then maybe. But if we get Dunn/Tex, and Po is healthy, and Cano is better (after he heals from his lobotomy) we can carry Melkdud's bat.

The Sox are carrying 3 black holes at CF, SS and C. Not that that is a good thing, but we can carry 1 weak bat.

Also, as tempting as CC is, we still have some talent at AA and A even after Melancon and Sanchez come up. If Hughes pitches to his potential, I think our rotation will be well better then league average from what we have inhouse for a few years to come.

What we need is 1 power bat and one OBP bat, who hopefully don't suck on D. JD's D cost us 2 runs yesterday, yes? And health and decline wise, we are not sure what a 2009 JD will look like. It does not make sence to spend $10m to upgrade CF to an averageish bat (and maybe lesser D).

Eh? I think the thread just got more interesting...

46 Um, huh?

45 i think the point of this year, with all of the offensive woes, is that we can't afford to carry anybody's bat.

hit it or quit it, as the man said ...

from petey:

RHP Dan Giese was examined today by Dr. Chris Ahmad at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital in New York. He was diagnosed with rotator cuff tendinitis and will be placed on the 15-day disabled list. The club will make a corresponding move tomorrow.

~~~~~~~~~~~

damn, that shoulder tendinitis sure is catchy ... i wonder if matsui left his "collection" behind when he went on the DL and that's what's to blame ... jetes is gonna have to step up and be the cap'n and get teach there are other ways to get ... ummm ... "relief"

46 Who are you and what are you talking about?