Just as you argue wait for Melky to get hot first, doesn't it also make sense to not deal when the whole league knows you are (or might be) desperate? Also, honestly, doesn't it suggest idiocy among the other GMs (might be valid in some cases) that merely waiting for a hot two weeks might cause them to smack their foreheads and cry 'Melky's godlike!' and deal for him? Can't they 'see' streakiness and levels too?

As for Melky, I stick with my 'let's be a tad more patient' mantra before writing him off as mediocre. One isue with kids who arrive really young is they are 'old news' really young and we forget how many players NEED to be 25-26 before they mature as big-leaguers. I am not locked into the Melky camp, and haven't seen nearly enough of Gardner (actually haven't SEEN him really at all) to make a call on BG's likely excellence or otherwise. My only point is that Cabrera IS still young. Improvement doesn't come week over week. This is a hard game to play. Should we decide Cano's done now, or vest all in a 2 year 'track record' of second half resurgence?

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/al_centerfield_offense_and_defense_through_june_21

Could Brett Gardner be expected to contribute major-league average right away? I don't think so. I don't think we should be overhyped about a half-season at AAA from a 25 year old any more so than underwhelmed by the first half of 2008 from a 23 year old in the majors.

At age 23, Brett Gardner was hitting .281/.369/.378 in AA/AAA. Melky Cabrera, meanwhile, hit .385/.430/.566 in the International League at the age of 21. That's a big difference. I've posted Gardner's MLE's before, and the short version is that Gardner is not ready to contribute on the major league level as a regular.

As for a trade, talking personnel is one thing, but look at the reality of the situations. What do the Indians have a lot of: young starting pitching (Lee, Laffey, Carmona, Sowers) and the best offensive centerfielder in the game (Sizemore). Why would they want to trade for Alan Horne and Melky Cabrera.

Next, look at Seattle. These are the players the Mariners gave up for Bedard: George Sherrill, Adam Jones, Tony Butler, Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio. Let's assume that the Mariners are looking to get at least the same kind of value in return. Adam Jones is a way better prospect than Melky. I suppose the Yankees have a number of relievers who can replace Sherrill. Tillman and Butler were two of the Mariners' top five pitching prospects; maybe Horne and Betances would suffice.

So: Edwar Ramirez, Melky Cabrera, Alan Horne, Dellin Betances, and Chase Wright for Erik Bedard. Does anyone make that deal?

And don't even get me started on what it would take to pry a can of soda from Billy Beane, much less Joe Blanton....

You mean the GM that Cashman seems to be emulating to the letter?

I would rather the Yanks miss the playoffs this year, and be in better position to make them the next 10. If that means Cashman holds on to all the pitching prospects - and let's be honest, almost all of them remain prospects, as opposed to MLB-caliber pitchers - so be it. The Yanks are, at this rate, going to need half of a new offense by 2010. Might as well having pitching depth to deal from when that time comes.

3 IIRC, Joe Sheehan the other pointed out that 21 of the 30 teams were within 9 games of each other. The parity is ridiculous. Everyone is holding on to their kids, except in rare instances (see Mets and Santana) - because you can win with kids, and kids are cheap, and now everyone knows this. The number of clueless GMs right now who could be fleeced via trade might actually be zero, for the first time in, well, ever. Ed Wade and his fetish for middle relievers might be the only easy mark. But the Astros have nothing of value they'll give up! (I don't believe Oswalt is good idea for a rental.)

And if your statements are supposed to suggest that the correct course of action is to trade away youngsters for the hot trade commodity of the moment, may I direct your attention to:

Jeff Weaver
Kevin Brown
Randy Johnson
Javier Vazquez

How'd those trades work out?

One thing that has to be considered, and only the Yankees know the answer to this: what is the long-term plan for CF?

If they really believe that Melky can develop into a solid (or better) player in CF for the next 4 or 5 or 6 years, then they should be more patient with him. Frankly, there is a very, very good chance that Gardner will never have as much upside, despite my blind optimism.

However, if the team only sees Melky as a short-term solution, 2 or 3 years before they develop some other player or sign a looming free agent (or whatever the plan is), then they might as well trade him if they get a fair offer.

This is because (I believe) Garner will give no worse production than the current version of Melky; and in fact, it would hard not to replace his production, so even if Gardner ends up stinkin' it up, they can look for another option in the off-season.

Anyway, we shall see. I thought Damon was cooked, but he turned it on this year. Many were (are) ready to bury Jeter, but he looks to be heating up a little. And so on.

Have any of the guys we traded away for the players you named amounted to anything?

1 Money's a resource, just like anything else. May as well use it. The bloated salary issues stem from the Yanks retaining their players, as well as taking on contracts dumped on them from other teams; Kevin Brown, Raul Mondesi among others, were salary dump trades.

Vasquez = Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, Randy Choate.

Randy Johnson = Vasquez, Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro.

In all of this, the Yankees only gave up two prospects. Nick the Stick was traded for Vasquez, and then proceeded to be hurt all the time. Then Vasquez was flipped for Johnson; the only real cost was Navarro.

Navaro seems to be developing into the very catcher that his prospect status portended, and boy could the Yankees use a young C in the system. But then again, let's wait to see how he pans out. So in the end, all of these players basically turned out to be a wash.

Ironically, the one they could use the most right now is Javier Vasquez (ERA+ 127 in 2007, 101 in 2008 looks pretty good as we wait for Sir Sidney to take the mound).

Also, 2007 seems to be the outlier in what has been a totally mediocre (and expensive) last five years.

But those othr guys? That's a bit of cherry picking, no? Having Rivera 2006 (in part time action) also means having him for 2004 an 2005 (though he was a pretty good part-time player in those years). Nick Johnson was very good when not hurt the last two years, hurt and not good the year before, hurt this year. Overall, there is not much difference on that record to Giambi.

The jury is still out on Navarro, but he is only 24 and he is playing very well with TB this year.

Still, the Astros have nothing.

15 Do you prefer Sabathia? Would you be willing to give up both Hughes and Kennedy? Because given the Indians' current personnel, I think that may be necessary. Why would the Indians want Melky Cabrera?

1] That none of the players involved in the Vasquez and RJ trades have really amounted to much. Despite trading away prospects for failed vets, the prospects in those trades did not really pan out (at least yet).

2] I was making a commentary on the sad state of the current staff. Still, Home Run Javy's ERA+ since leaving the Yankees:

2005: 100 (215 INN)
2006: 98 (202 INN)
2007: 127 (216 INN)
2008: 101 (102 INN so far)

Frankly, the Yankees would have killed to have a 200+ INN/year, league average starter in any of those seasons.

Indeed, if pushed, I might even conclude that he has been the most valuable player of everyone involved in those two trades.

Johnson was tough to give up, but for an arm like Vaz at the time, sure; don't think anyone saw Giambi going down like he did in 2004.

And even then, the problem for the Yanks hasn't been the offense, it has been pitching.

Right handed relievers do, actually in fact grow on trees. Its been documented.

But I strongly disagree on Nick Johnson. With Johnson and Giambi in the lineup the last three years, the offense is much better. Maybe Cashman could have found a way to trade Johnny Damon.

Well, whatever. Everything about the state of the Yankees can be traced back two key decisions:

1) December 19, 2003: Yankees sign Gary Sheffield
January 14, 2003: Angels sign Vladamir Guererro

2) January 11, 2005: Yankees trade for Randy Johnson
January 15, 2005: Mets sign Carlos Beltran

Only because the Yanks took on salary. If the Phils had to eat part of those contracts, the Yanks would've had to given up better prospects.

24 It would've been nice to still have Javy, but if it were a choice between Javy & RJ, I'd still make that trade.

Cashman's moves: Abreu, Shef, RJ, Betemin and Molina have been very specific to his plan and our teams specific needs. He is NOT doing 'let's shake things up' kind of trades. A Bird in the Hand is not always a bad philosophy.

The Melky/Brett situation is one of 'the grass is always greener' and 'let's try something for Gods sake'. As many have pointed out, there is no evidence that Gardner has more upside then Melky. Right now, Melky is underperforming and is NOT playing a thinking mans game. At the same time, Brett may be overperforming.

Furthermore, it's not like Melky would be the lynchpin in any important trade. He is cheap, young and has potential, but I don't think he's turning any GM heads. And if a GM is interested in Melky, they might be interest in Brett also.

Cashman is not dumb. Like with JD, he is laying in wait. He will pounce when something of impact is available.

Also, I don't think the Iggy deal was bad. Bad result, yes, but not bad analysis. Because of the luxury tax, Iggy's real cost is comparable to getting a MLBer for $7.6m/yr. For a LHP as a #5, that's not bad.
Remember the RCNB. Okijima was on nobody's radar. The Sox got him basically so Dice-K had someone to talk to. He turned out to be a excellent pickup. Iggy turned into garbage. Who knew?

Boy Genius Billy Beane got John-Ford Griffin, Jason Arnold and Ted Lilly. And they gave up on Lilly within a year, and traded him for MLB mediocrity Kielty. Meanwhile, Oakland gave up Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman!

Agreed.
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Assuming Torre would have used him over GOB, for example, who would still have been on the team.

And to a lesser degree, I don't like the way Lofton was handled when he was here. He definately would've come in handy in 2005.

453 AB, .280/.390/.400

That's better than Melky's line (while two years younger) how?

My argument isn't that Melky will ever be a Carlos Beltran or a Grady Sizemore; but he will get better and is still four years away from typical peak. My argument is that Brett Gardner will be worse overall for the Yankees than Melky, whose full potential has not yet been reached.

I think some fans have the Back-Up-QB syndrome. Just because someone is new doesn't mean he's going to be better.

I mean